Mid-Year State of the Beef Industry: Resilient, Cautious and Rewriting the Playbook 

At the halfway point of 2026, we checked in with Dr. Carling Matejka, a veterinarian and fourth-generation Alberta beef producer, and Brayden Schmidt, who operates across multiple segments of the beef supply chain, alongside Elanco Farm Animal Technical Consultant, Cameron Olson — to understand how the beef industry is performing and what matters most for the rest of the year. 

The Canadian beef industry is standing in a rare position: strong on paper, complicated in practice. 

“I think the Canadian beef industry is in a relatively strong position, but not without some pressure points to take into consideration,” says Dr. Carling Matejka, a beef cattle veterinarian, fourth-generation Alberta producer and alumna of the Canadian Cattle Young Leaders (CCYL) program. “Overall, I’d call the industry resilient and cautiously stronger, but not exactly comfortable yet.” 

Brayden Schmidt, a producer involved across multiple segments of the industry, sees the same tension.  
 
“We’re in all-time high market. It’s definitely a seller’s market,” he says.  
 
But for an operation that sells genetics and feeds cattle, optimism comes with exposure.  
 
“We're grateful for the optimism and very happy to sell the genetics, but when it comes to the buy, we’re scared of how volatile it is,” he adds. 

Market fundamentals continue to reward placing cattle on feed, as reflected in the April and May placement numbers reported by Canfax.  

“Feedlots have bucked seasonal trends and increased placements in April and May by more than 30% year-over-year, and are betting on continued improvements in fed cattle prices, which have been on an extraordinary run since January 2026,” notes Cameron Olson, Farm Animal Technical Consultant, Elanco Canada.  

In Alberta, fed cattle prices have gained more than $78/cwt since the first of the year¹. Additionally, beef cow inventories are up 1.9%, breeding heifers have climbed 4.8%,² and cattle prices remain historically strong.  

For cow-calf producers in particular, the market has created a level of optimism many have not felt in years. But beneath the headline numbers, producers are still navigating tight supplies, expensive inputs, and a cattle cycle that is creating very different realities depending on where they sit in the value chain. 

Cow-Calf Thrives, Feedlots Squeeze: How the Cattle Cycle Is Creating Divergent Realities 

The market dynamics of 2026 are not creating equal opportunities across the supply chain. Strong prices and tight supply have fundamentally different implications for cow-calf compared to feedlot operators. The result is a divergence with some producers expanding, while others are managing risk with precision. 

“Cow-calf producers are in a good spot right now with strong calf prices and a relatively tight supply,” says Matejka. “There is finally some opportunity to hang on to some heifers, build some equity, and make longer-term decisions instead of just trying to keep the business surviving.” 

Schmidt sees that optimism showing up in spending and expansion conversations, especially among mixed farming operations that have benefited from grain markets in recent years. “For the cow-calf segment, the margins are wide,” he says. “Those mixed farming operations in the cow-calf sector are doing very well.” 

Feedlots, however, are facing the other side of the same cycle.  

“On the feedlot side, it is tighter,” says Matejka. “Feeder cattle are expensive to bring in, and feed and health costs have not backed off enough to make things comfortable. Margins are getting squeezed pretty tight.” 

Cattle coming into the feedlots are bought at a price. To provide a snapshot of recent pricing, 500–600‑lb Alberta steers reached historic values in early May, averaging over $715/cwt, and 800–900‑lb steers topped the market the week of May 22 at $517/cwt. That translates to values in excess of $3,900 per head, and a cost of more than $682,500 to fill a 175-head pen.¹ 

For feedlot operators, Schmidt says, resilience and liquidity will matter. “We’re on opposite sides of the coin right now with how optimistic it is in the cow-calf deal and then just how tight it is in the feedlot deal.” 

Olson cautions that a wildcard from mother nature is the developing very strong El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean, which puts western Canada on a pathway to a hot and dry summer.  
 
“Feed costs are reasonable today as producers continue to work through the 2025 crop but could see a substantial change in feed prices if Western crop production falls off due to weather challenges,” Olson says. 

The Consumer Surprise: Beef Holds Its Ground 

Historically, when commodity prices spike, consumer demand pulls back. Retail customers trade down, look for substitutes, or reduce consumption. The industry has seen it before and many anticipated seeing it again in 2026. Instead, something unexpected has happened. 

Recently, 85% Lean Trim again surpassed the $400 USD/cwt mark in the United States¹ and is on a trajectory for record prices heading into the summer grilling season.  

“With insufficient lean trim to meet demand, retail prices for the basics like ground beef are not likely to back off any time soon. Canadian beef also continues to be in-demand around the world, and high prices domestically do not seem to be a problem internationally. The consumer remains remarkably stalwart in their economic support of high-quality domestic beef consumption, despite record prices at grocery stores,” explains Olson.  

That sentiment is shared on the ground as well. 

“What surprised me the most is that consumer demand for beef has stayed as strong as it has, even with the price of beef where it is right now,” says Matejka. “A lot of us expected more pushback at the retail level, but that has not really shown up in a big way. It really shows how consumers value high-quality Canadian beef.” 

Schmidt points to the momentum that has built since 2022 and has not yet broken. “We’ve been rolling in some heavy momentum,” he says. “We’re coming on four years of calf crops since then, and I’m very surprised by how we’ve been able to maintain that momentum.” 

He suggests beef may be moving into a different mental category for consumers as a premium choice. “The more that I think we’re in this, the more we might be seeing our industry as a seafood industry, like lobster and shrimp,” he says. “Lots of us crave seafood and know it comes at a great cost, but it doesn't stop us from eating it.” 

Herd Rebuilding: Real Growth or False Expansion? 

The early numbers suggest rebuilding is underway. But producers are cautious about calling it a full rebound. 

“Herd rebuilding is happening, slowly and cautiously,” says Matejka. “The January 2026 numbers do show a shift in the right direction, with cattle inventories up by 2.5% compared to last year. It is positive to see that producers are retaining females and not cashing in on the high market.” 

Still, she notes that expansion depends on more than price. Forage confidence, land values, debt load, interest rates, labour access, and succession planning all influence whether producers are truly prepared to grow. “In Western Canada, I think cow-calf producers are interested in rebuilding, but we need a few more positive years to really see committed growth.”  

Olson notes that herd rebuilding may be occurring in North America, but it is too early to say definitively. “Weather and market disruptions over the next 12-18 months could easily derail the tentative start we may be observing,” he says.  

Schmidt is even more cautious. He sees signs of what he calls “false expansion” where heifers are purchased or retained, but not necessarily as part of a long-term cow herd rebuild. “There are a lot of heifers getting bought that are deemed replacement that are just getting bred to be traded for cash flow,” he contends.  

Policy, Trade and the Risk Outside the Fence Line 

Some of the biggest risks facing producers in the second half of 2026 exist outside the operation, in trade agreements, regulatory files and decisions that shape market access and producer confidence. 

“We’re always worried about trade volatility because we’re such a high export market,” Schmidt says. “With 60% of our finished product going to our neighbours, the CUSMA agreement is extremely important to us.” 

Traceability has also been one of the year’s most significant policy conversations. Matejka says traceability matters for disease response and market access, but the system has to work in real production settings.  

“For the rest of the year, industry advocacy really needs to focus on making sure trade agreements are balanced, don't undermine domestic production, and continue to push for practical, workable traceability,” she says. 

The Next Generation Is Stepping Up  

“Being involved in Canadian Cattle Young Leaders really shifted how I saw my role in the industry,” says Matejka. “It made me realize that being a good producer or a good vet isn’t enough anymore. We also need to be able to explain what we do, advocate for it, and show up in the rooms where decisions are being made.” 

Schmidt experienced this opportunity firsthand when he was nominated to the Canadian Cattle Association board after completing youth leadership programming. The industry, he found, is actively seeking younger voices to join the conversation.  

“The next generation has the ambition to continuously learn publicly. The older generations before us, a lot of learning went on at the coffee shop and amongst smaller circles, and the next generation is pushing that to a broader, more public scale,” Schmidt notes. Combined with increasing comfort level of using data to support business decisions, this dynamic is shaping how the industry communicates, learns, and adapts. 

What to Watch in the Second Half of 2026 

For those planning through the rest of the year, the industry’s message is disciplined optimism. 

Protect margins with precision: Strong prices do not erase risk, especially in feedlots where buying decisions, health outcomes and feed efficiency can swing profitability quickly. 

Treat herd rebuilding cautiously: Inventory growth is encouraging, but long-term expansion depends on forage, land, labour, interest rates and succession. 

Use data where it creates value: Technology should not add noise; it should help producers make better decisions faster. 

Invest in leadership and communication: The future of the industry will be influenced by producers who can connect production realities with public trust, policy and consumer expectations. 

The opportunity now is to convert strong markets into stronger businesses, stronger advocacy and stronger systems. The next six months will test how well producers can turn resilience into readiness. 

Elanco Canada is a proud Foundation sponsor of the Canadian Cattle Young Leaders Program, supporting the future leaders of the beef and agricultural industries.